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August 01, 2005
The Big Fish
Baseball snared the big one today when it announced that Rafael Palmeiro has been suspended after testing positive for steroids. The news should quell any lingering doubts about the credibility of the steroid testing program. Unlike Alex Sanchez and Juan Rincon, until now the two highest profile players caught, Palmeiro is a household name. Aside from Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, or Mark McGwire, he's as bright a light as could come up dirty.
Palmeiro's reputation is sure to take a major hit, especially after being so definitive in his testimony to Congress about not taking steroids. "I have never used steroids. Period," he emphatically told Congress, his finger raised in the air for emphasis.
He has now amended his denial to never having "knowingly" taken steroids, insisting the positive test came from an otherwise innoncent supplement he took.
First, I don't buy it. That's the last refuge of the desperate who know they've been caught red handed and want to squrim out from under the charges. How many times have players been warned about taking supplements that potentially contain banned substances or chemicals that could be metabolised into a banned substance? Look at his statistics as well. The most homeruns he hit before 1993, the year the original 'rhoid boy, Jose Canseco, joined the Rangers was 26 in 1991. His homerun binge started in earnest in 1993. In ten of the next 11 seasons, he hit at least 37 homeruns per year, peaking with 47 twice. That ramped up production is what put him on the path to become only the fourth player in baseball history with at least 500 homeruns and 3,000 hits.
Sure, it's only circumstantial evidence, but it's pretty compelling from where I sit. It's also somewhat sad now to ponder whether one of the most dynamic players of the current era is nothing more than a fraud. Sports writers seem to be split on whether he belongs in the Hall of Fame given the news. Some say, and they're right, that there's just not enough evidence, not a smoking gun. Still, if I were voting for the Hall of Fame, I'd pass on him, Bonds, Sosa, and McGwire. I find it hard to believe that they're phenomenal stats aren't juiced.
Posted by at August 1, 2005 09:39 PM
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Comments
Except that in Palmeiro's case there were never any overt signs that he was getting bigger or stronger the way Bonds, Sosa, Giambi, or Pudge Rodriguez did.
There's also evidence that something else was going on league wide. Unless you want to attribute that to steroids as well, his power surge corresponded to the same effect seen all over baseball.
In his first 5 full seasons, the league average slugging percentage was 0.386. The following year (1993) it went up to .400, and the next year to .444, where it has generally stayed ever since. His OPS+ numbers have generally been 120-140 all the way back to 1987.
Posted by: Sherard at August 2, 2005 12:04 PM
His numbers jumped when Canseco joined him in Texas(?) in '93-4 (memory foggy). After they became teammates, Palmiero's power numbers spiked. Now, Canseco walking into that locker room with his little black bag may be just a co-inky-dence....
Posted by: TC at August 2, 2005 05:11 PM