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RatherGate: The Pool is Open

Think of this as a death pool, but one gauging the death of Dan Rather's career. Pick dates (and times if you wish to be really, really specific, which would help in the event of a tie) for the following: * CBS announces that the memos are, indeed, forgeries. * Dan Rather steps down. * The source of the memos is named by CBS * The Red Sox are eliminated from pennant race Oops, sorry about that last one. Force of habit. By the way, never is a viable answer for any of the questions. See also, when hell freezes over. However, for those of you who think that this will be resolved in a satisfactory way - satisfactory meaning culpability and accountability by CBS and Rather - name your dates. There will be a prize. Said prize given as long as Satan isn't cross-hell skiing. Update: Here's my prediction. Nothing will ever come of this. CBS will continue to defend itself and Rather. They will stop addressing it at some point and the story will be swept under the rug as Election Day approaches. Then, maybe, some time after Election Day, CBS will issue a release, probably on a Friday evening, that perhaps the memos were, after all, forgeries. No one will notice. Rather will continue on with his career until one evening he walks away from his desk, opens a studio window and yells outside "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore!" Someone on the street below will yell "JUMP!" Rather will seriously contemplate it for a moment.


Listed below are links to weblogs that reference RatherGate: The Pool is Open:

» The Dan Pool from Arguing with signposts...
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» Time for Dan's Sanity Check from Pattern Perception
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I haven't watched CBS news in ages but I did tonight. How can people sit though this every day? It has such a grim, end-of-the-world tone. I only tuned in to see if Dan would continue to defend his attack... [Read More]

» Memo-Gate Predictions from JimSpot
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I'll take the CBS announcement and 9/24. It is, after all my birthday, and what more could I ask for. Okay, okay, nevermind that last point.

Never, never, and never - respectfully.

Sorry, I don't participate in deadpools.

Wednesday 22 september 12.00 Midday.
I've got adentist appointment then, might aswell have something to look forward to.

Oh and that's for option 1, CBS announces.

Day after Bush is elected...burried in the liberal news like a giant size record setting cookie.

1. September 22, mumbled under one's breath during the closing credits of 60 Minutes.
2,3. November 10, during Rather's last appearance on the show. November 3 is the eral target date, but that would be too obvious.

1> CBS announces that the memos are, indeed, forgeries.

September 17th, 6:30 PM, EDT.

2> Dan Rather steps down.

November 7th, 2004, 6:30 PM EST

3> The source of the memos is named by CBS

This one I can't see happening, but I'll piggyback it on #2 above.

Is it a cool prize?

Well, it sure as hell ain't today, because he just broadcast another "stonwall" defense saying they stand by the dox.

CBS announces that the memos are, indeed, forgeries.
Friday, September 14, 6:57 PM EST (as a bump out)

Dan Rather steps down.
Monday, November 8, 6:55 EST

The source of the memos is named by CBS

Numbers 1 & 3 Sept. 17, just after 5, stealing a page from the old Clinton handbook of dumping bad news late Friday afternoon.

Rather will pack it in Nov. 1, All Fools Day, the night before the election.

The Sawx? What day is Game 7 of the ALCS?

I already lost.
I predicted last thursday.

But I am giving out prizes.
The first person who mails me a screen shot of Dan
Rather apologizing for mucking up the airwaves
gets a handy Kerfuffle bag ™ with three jars of non-perishable vegemite for the end times.

I honestly sometimes think that Dan would rather pull a Bud Dwyer on live TV then admit fault.

1 & 3: November 5th

2: Dec 31, 2004

How about a nice Dodger-Yankee series?

They will admit the documents "probably were tampered with in some way" on monday, Sept 20. Dan will never resign, and the source (unimpeachable source!) will not be named either, because Dan will point out: "Experts across the country took weeks to debate this, we believe our source was as fooled as everyone else was." (so: Sep 20, never, and never.)

Is there an option for CBS putting together hit pieces on the higher profile people that pointed out CBS' incompetance?

CBS will not announce that they're forgeries, but will make a statement following their independent investigation that concluded that the items in question are likely to remain of dubious factuality. And they'll apologize for any confusion that resulted. (September 22nd, Sixty Minutes II, with news release)

Dan Rather will take a lesser role in the weeks after the election, citing a need to "rest" after the "stress" of the election (and this applies even if Kerry wins). (November 5th, announced during the news) He'll get a poorly-rated newsmagazine at a crappy hour, then go to a Sunday morning show within a year. He'll wish he could be Charles Kuralt (only alive).

The source of the memos will out himself. And then another one will do it. And another one. CBS will not confirm any of their accounts, but the source will be revealed (but not by CBS, which will ignore the story out of habit by then) to be some idiot from a small Northeastern college who enjoys attention, bong hits, and just wanted to get the attention of a cute boy who works with MoveOn.org. Kerry gets a Sista Souljah Moment. (Weekend of October 16-17, followed by a week of national discussion on whether or not he was too hard on her).

I'm placing my bet for nine days from now- September 23. Har har har...

CBS will fold under great pressure in late September, just like the Yankees. Dan will hold on for as long as possible and will outlast Brian Cashman Before his retirement in December. CBS will announce it's source, someone in the DNC, just after Kerry ruins the last of his chances by saying he is looking forward to seeing "the Rocket" pitching for the Red Sox in the World Series.

Damn good to have you back for a few days Michele.

My guess: Never. However, in January, Dan Rather will take a position as "senior editor" with NPR - ostensibly because he wants to "real journalism" unfettered by "corporate politics". And from then until the day he dies, he'll sling mud at Bush on the taxpayer's dime.

September 12, 2004.

Yes, I realize this is last Sunday. The Politburo is still trying to figure out how to announce his demise. Everything you see with Dan Rather now are carefully edited repeats. Come to think of it, maybe September 12, 2001, would work as well.

Actually, I think that CBS will shortly "withdraw" the memos, claiming that "their status is unclear", with "experts in disagreement" about their authenticity, but will "stand by the rest of our story" pretending that the story can stand without the documentary underpinning.

For sentimental reasons, I'll pick my birthday, September 28th as the date Rather will step down.

CBS announces that the memos are, indeed, forgeries.

- Sept 26th at 4:00 pm EST

Dan Rather steps down.

- Sept 30th at 4:00 pm EST

The source of the memos is named by CBS

- December 25th, 12:01 am

I lost. I picked tonight. When the WaPo and NYT stories broke, I thought I was sitting pretty.

I am speechless about what Dan didn't say tonight. And very sad. Tomorrow, I predict:

Editorials from WaPo, NYT and WSJ, slamming Dan.

Editorials from 12-20 tier 2 papers as well.

A near mutiny within CBS.

Hahahahaha... yeah, unfortunately this little piece of dirty trickery is going to remain unpunished I think. CBS will never take responsibility and just delay on them till no one notices or cares and then quietly resolves it with no one the wiser...

Never on all 3, but sence I have to pick dates to win, lets see

1. CBS announces that the memos are, indeed, forgeries.
November the 19th 630, but they will never use the word Forgeries, but instead say "questionable orgines)

2. Dan Rather steps down.
September 3rd 2008, will die of a heart attack.

3. The source of the memos is named by CBS
Never not in a million years.

OOUUCCHH ... The Dallas Morning News is reporting that Killian's secretary is saying the docs are fake BUT they reflect real documents that once existed. Add this to Hodges confirmation of the substance of the docs.

No wonder Bush has maintained such a low profile on this issue.

I'll take the Red Sox in six. PFFFFFFT!!!!!!!

As far as Rather goes, welcome to a career dirt-nap.

Let's see how long it takes for CBS News to react to the advertising reports.
(Friday noon sounds about right.)

Note, however, that the Neilson ratings of CBS Nightly news are undoubtedly skewed as so many many potential pajama wearing blog-reading non-professional journalist viewers are presently tuning just in case Dan commits suicide or instead murders his producers on the air.

The world loves a ghoul.

Don't you feel ashamed of yourselves?

I think that it will all go away and nothing will happen to him. He will go on and the idiots will follow him and think nothing happened. It will just get swept under the rug and life will go oon See BS.

I think it will be a Cards- Yankees series. With the Cars winning in 7

Like Tom (first post), I pick my birthday:
Nov. 4, '04: Dan Rather steps down.
Memos announced as forgeries: 10/29/04 at 6:30PM
Source of documents revealed by CBS: Never
By other outlets, paying big bucks to someone who claims to be the source:
Within 3 days of W's re-swearing ceremony (day before, day of, or day after).


Or, until the FEC forces them to cooperate with the investigation into their attempt to influence a presidential election.
So, never.

But in either case, it will be after Nov 3, 2004.
Which is as far into the future as anyone at CBS News can see, anyway.

As for that redacted prediction: Cards over Twins in six games. (And the sham that Minnesota is a "small market team" will be repeated endlessly.)

Up until a couple of days ago my answer to all three would have been "when hell freezes over." But given what's going on tonight, I'll take the following dates:

CBS admits forgery - Monday, September 20th
Dan Rather resigns - October 1st
Identity of forger/source revealed - after November 2nd

CBS announces forgeries: The night of the CBS moderated Presidential debate (10/13/2004). Bob Schieffer will confront Bush with the fraudulent documents and demand to know whether Dick Cheney helped him with the spelling.

Dan Rather steps down: It will be revealed that Dan Rather actually stepped down sometime in August 2002.

CBS reveals source of the memos: When Cynthia McKinney is sworn in as President of the United States.

CBS will continue to stonewall until they feel they have totally contained the bogus story, sources, documents, etc. in such a way that no investigation will reveal the truth. This reminds me of the stall tactics the UN used until Saddam, et al, could hide or destroy weapons before we invaded Iraq.
How long will this take? One more week. If, in the face of overwhelming evidence, they haven't admitted guilt yet, they never will.
BTW, congrats on having the A Small Victory logo flashed onto the screen during Paula Zahn's segment on bloggers on CNN!

I think Dan will appologize October 12 before the debate and comit the ancient japanese bushido act of seppuku, a form of ritual suicide, part of a formal ceremony involving disembowelment and beheading.

CBS will regret the act on October 13 and appoint John Roberts to replace the beloved Dan Rather and will never admit to Rathergate or acknowledged it ever happened.

Do I win?

Announcing that they're false? Saturday Oct. 9th. That's a long weekend. They and their many friends will use the time between then and now to establish the idea that CBS and Dan Rather are the real victims here because they were tricked first, and worse than anybody.

Rather steps down? Never. In fact, if he's contemplating early retirement he'll delay it so it won't be linked to this.

Source revealed in an official statement by CBS? Never.

Gotta run. I'm off to Hillary's gala party celebrating the free press and Al Gore's invention of the internet.


Rather is entrenched in his insistence that he's right. CBS won't force him to resign.

BTW, www.crushkerry.com outed the source of the Memos as MoveOn.org.

El Chuck: who gets to cut off Rather's head after he slices his belly? I think the tradition dictates that it be a trusted compatriot who will keep him from saying anything unmanly--or revealing the source.

1. 9/23/04
2. 11/11/04
3. 11/11/04

The source will be outed by the blogosphere by 9/17, and there will be ties to Moveon.org or the Kerry campaign.

CBS will run a story about the courage and commitment needed to be a journalist, but will sidestep any admission.

Rather will retire August 05

My prediction;

Rather will resign Friday 9/17/04 at the end of his broadcast.

End of weekly news cycle, CBS will hope that it will help quiet the uproar.

1 - Sept. 16, 2004, 18.38 EST. We wouldn't want to put it at the beginning of the news, not with other delicious tidbits like Ivan to hide it.
2 - Jan. 20, 2005. He'll probably last the rest of the year, and was planning on retiring sometime after the election anyhow. Going thru the innauguration would be a good ending point.
3 - Never.

The story about Killian's secretary may be the tollling of the bells for the CBS boys.


Up until that point, I was with you; CBS was not going to pay anything for this. But the secretary is pretty well nailing the lid shut. I can't image how it will go down. I suspect Dan will offer some form of hem-haw apologia and leave it at that.

That said, they will NEVER give up the sources (if they even know who it is).

1) September 17th
2) When Hell Freezes Over
3) Septembet 17th, 19th, 21st and agin on the 27th - I'm working on the theory that the several "sources" will be identified before the real source is found out.

1 - September 24, 2004 CBS will try and ride out the present news cycle, but will buckle under in an effort to buy off any Congressional scrutiny.

2 - December 15, 2004 Mr. Rather will step down permanently after licking his wounds for three months in a "sabbatical"

3 - September 28, 2004 This is a fudge. USA Today will, in fact, reveal the source in an effort to evade Congressional scrutiny, but also to kick CBS while its down.

4 - Game 6, ALCS. MLB WS: Yanks over Cards in 6

El Chuck: If it is MoveOn.org it wouldn't be surprising. FactCheck.org shows that the most recent MoveOn.org ad is pure bullshit: http://factcheck.org/article.aspx?docID=258

527 Organization my ass. It's just a political hit squad, that at this point appears to have broken more than just campaign finance laws.

El Chuck: John Roberts is 'anchored' (sorry) to Dan Rather. If Rather goes down, Roberts goes with him - or at the very least forfeits the presumption that he will take over the chair.

Now that I've read the comments of posters such as 'McSwain' I have to adjust my earlier prediction.

CBS will not, in fact, use the word 'forgery' - they will simply admit to 'questions that have been raised' - while immediately pivoting on a "but the substance of the allegations."

We've seen it before, from M. Moore, among many others: yes, the facts might be all messed up and conflicted and senseless, but the general "feel" is right. Rather will go away and be rehabilitated in the NY/Hollywood celebrity axis, after all, his heart was in the right place: he just wanted to defeat the Bushitler and save America.

And as for Bush not saying anything about this, I think that's exactly appropriate; he has more important things to do - like fighting a war on Islamofascism and winning an election.

The final irony in all this is of course that, even if in some fantasyland everything that Rather et. all. wished were true about Bush's guard records were in fact true, nobody would care. Rather et al are concerned about a war from thirty plus years ago, while the rest of the country is dealing with the war we're in now.

Friday, 9/17/04 at 6:30. CBS announces the documents cannot positively be determined to be genuine but does not admit that they are forgeries. This is an attempt to preserve Rather's position and protect the source.

Monday, 9/20/04. USA Today, in an attempt to recover from the Kelly debacle and generate some publicity for itself, reports that the documents are forged and were provided to USA Today by Ben Barnes.

Barnes status as a top fundraiser for Kerry is overlooked by the MSM (except for Fox News, which shows a 50% rating share after CBS's ratings plummet) for a few days before the cannot hold back any longer.

Sunday afternoon, 9/26/04 Dan Rather, who had no intention of resigning prior to the USA Today story, is forced to resign by the disclosure that Barnes was the source of the documents.

CBS announces that Walter Cronkite is returning as anchor, now that he has free time available after he gave up writing his weekly (unread) column.

I thought "never" until this ABC story about the other document experts broke. Now, I say CBS admits it 9/16 at 6:33pm. Danny Boy will make it until 9/24 at 6:33. The source will be revealed after the election, say 12/10 at 6:33. I don't know if I can handle the disappointment if I don't get this.

Peter Jennings and Tom Brokaw have a couple of drinks to celebrate and end up learning more about themselves and their bodies than they ever dreamed possible.

is Bill Buckner still playing firstbase for the RedSox?

The same date the White House takes accountability for leaking Valerie Plame's name.

The same date George Bush admits he did coke.

The same date you admit you hated Clinton for smoking pot but refuse to acknowledge Bush hit a double- coke use & alcoholism

The same date you admit that Fox'News' is the most destructive force true journalism has ever known.

The same date you admit you're thrilled to have a scandal to talk about so you don't have to admit Bush shirked Guard duty, Bush shirked 'nam, Bush lied about Iraq and a 9/11 link, and Bush is destroying our environment.

Cute pictures of kids and comments about safety on this site. Did you know relaxation of envirnmental laws can be directly linked to dramatic increases in chilhood asthma, decreased life spans, cancer rates, and scores of maternity problems including SIDS, cerebral pulsy, and muscular distrophy?

Did you know that every minute you waste talking about shit like vietnam you bring us closer to irreversible damage to our social and physical infrastructure?


I heard that Kerry served in Viet-Nam Lennon, is that true?

jp, did you know that you forgot your medication? If you take it, then the world will become so much nicer, and you will realize that the nice Michele lady who runs this blog is not trying to control your mind with magic rays. You might also come to realize that some of your assumptions about Michele and the comment community here are a more that a bit wrong. Part of the fun of reading ASV is the completely clueless trolls who occasionally show up.

1) Announce the source: they already did this on Sept. 12, when they leaked the name (Bill Burkett) to Newsweek, and then leaked it again to several other sources yesterday and today. Plan is for Burkett to then crack on his own under the pressure from peering media and fess up.

2) Rather resigns: Sept. 16.

3) CBS admits the documents are unsubstantiated (I don't think they'll use the "f" word): Sept. 17.

jp lennon?

James Partridge Lennon...

...should anyone take someone serious that has two musical names that contradict each other as much as his does?

I mean, 'cmon. When you start going off on asthma and SIDS, what is that all about?

I think Ross Perot and Howard Dean are meeting your for cocktails tomorrow at 8pm. Say hello to Oliver Stone for me and watch out for the alien probes of your rectum.


Walter Sobchak: It's like what Lenin said... you look for the person who will benefit, and, uh, uh...

Donny : I am the walrus.

The Dude : You know what I'm trying to say...

Walter Sobchak : That f#cking bitch...

Donny : I am the walrus.

Walter Sobchak : shut the f#ck up, Donny! V.I. Lenin. Vladimir Illanich Uleninov!

That is all

I hope Bush is elected in a landslide so the MSM can have it shoved (HT Mrs Kerry) in their faces once and for all that it doesn't matter what they say or do. No retraction or apology is required because the MSM is totally irrelevant.

CBS announces that the memos are, indeed, forgeries.

October 31, 2004. In a spooky televised seance, the crew of the CBS Evening News is told by the ghost of Walter Cronkite that the docs are faked. Huh? Cronkite's still alive? Bah. Probable another forgery.

Dan Rather steps down.

The android that replaced Rather in June of 1992 is due for replacement in six months. So technically, I guess he will 'step down' March 15 '05

The source of the memos is named by CBS

Surprisingly soon. Oct. 1 '04, CBS will admit that the source of the forgeries was Hillary! No no no no no no - not that Hillary! I'm talking about the nefarious Hillary Duff. Everyone knows that Duff has been appointed by the Pentaveret to use double-reverse-inverted psych ploys to keep Kerry out of office.

I mean, isn't this stuff obvious to you guys?

1. CBS will admit the memos are frauds two days after Congress announces there will be a hearing into Rathergate.

2. CBS will force Rather out in December (I'll go for the 12th). This will allow them reasonable time to find a replacement to upgrade their creditability. Rumor is that CBS Evening News will offer Democratic Dan's position to Baghdad Bob. I'm not sure that would be an upgrade, but at least it's an even trade.

3. CBS and Dan Rather will take cyanide pills before revealing the source. Itís written into their contract with the DNC.

1). CBS will begin reffering to the dox as "questionable documents" beginning today, but CBS will never admit the dox are outright forgeries. CBS will continue to back Dirty Dan.

2). Dirt Dan makes it to his already announced retirement date in Feb 2005. After the election, CBS promotes Dirty Dan to "Lord High Editor Potentate", or something like that.

3). While CBS will not reveal the source, the source will be leaked by a CBS staffer on 04.09.18 between 00:01 hrs and 10:00 hrs. The leaker will be a liberal that still possess a smattering of integrity. Prolly female. She will use communications records to back up her claim.

4). The source identified will be moveon.org. On Mon, 04.09.20 the investigations will begin in earnest. The first legal actions will be filed on 04.10.11 in Federal court.

5). When Congress reconveines for it's next session post-election, first jack outta the box will be the reconsideration of the status of 527's. This will be proposed by those on the left side of the aisle. Those on the right will move to repeal the McCain-Feingold violation of the 1st Ammendment. Will they be successful? Personally, I give them 1 chance in 3.

6). Contact me by email to arrange delivery of my prize.

I'm going with the early shocker, in spite of Ol' Dan's houseboat on De Nial:

Sep. 20 - Evening News - Dan announces the documents are forged, he is the source, he is a sorry-ass liar, and he is retiring immediately.

1&2, same time, 9/30/04.

CBS will issue some kind of statement when Hurricane Ivan is peaking and then let the matter drop entirely.

1) Friday September 17th. Probably late in the afternoon so no one notices.

2) Two years from now. Long enough to make it clear that he didn't step down under pressure.

3) December 1st. After the election is over under pressure from a potential congressional investigation. They will finally cave and call it "one of the great violations of freedom of the press in modern American history. This is a dark day indeed for freedom of speach and another indication of the opression of George Bush's regime. Blah, blah, blah"

They will never admit the forgeries. Rather's retirement will be hastened by this debacle. He steps down in March 2006. CBS will never name the source. They will however, leak it sometime before the election if the name helps Kerry or after the election if the name hurts Kerry.

I take 9/28 although it should be sooner.

Dan Rather effectively ended his career by broadcasting news that was obviously meant to discredit President Bush and to influence the 2004 Presidental Election. In his rush to judgement he took fabricated documents and stood before us to announce that our president had betrayed his oath to the National Guard and our country. He should resign immediately and apologize for his actions. His career is ruined and he will live with the shame of what he did for the rest of his life.

Items one, two and three: never

The Sox? Game 6, ALCS

World Series: Twins over Cards in 7 (Why? American League has home field.)

Tuesday, September 21st -- I'll have a COLONOSCOPY on that date and want to look forward to good news from CBS. "Rather Fired"

I'm incredulous that none of you even entertain the possibility that, while the documents may in fact be forged, President Bush didn't fulfill the terms of his National Guard contract. All of the facts are there; the secretary Dan Rather interviewed basically said, no, he didn't report for his physical; yes, Killian was upset about it; yes, his family connections kept him out of Vietnam.

Doesn't that bother any of you? While it does bother me that the documents are forged (if it's proved that they are), it doesn't bother me half as much as it bothers me that a guy who used his daddy's influence to keep him out of harm's way is now the Commander-in-Chief of our armed forces.

Date Pool :
1) October 1, 2004 (two Fridays away)
2) November 3, 2004 (second choice,
(re)Inauguration Day, 2005.
3)Much sooner than you think.
Say, is Dan Rather allowed a guess???

Dan Rather's how old now ... 72? CBS won't fire him. I give him another 12 to 18 months, enough time for the network to groom a replacement and for Dan to retire "gracefully".

The "secretary" for National Guard stated a short time before the CBS broadcast she did not remember "Lt. Bush" from that time period. Now when interviewed by the Great Dan Blather, she suddenly remembers him, the Lt. Col's feelings about Bush, etc. How did she "suddenly" remember all of these details??????? Perhaps a little coaching from Mr. Blather, or his assistant, helped with the "long term memory". What do you think. PS: She also stated she dislikes Bush and is a Kerry supporter. HMMMMM, seems to be a very reliable witness.

erik and Sergio, congratulations! CBS has gone as far as it will go today, with an apology no less.
We still have potentials on Dan Rather (10/1, 11/3) but Bill Burkett was "named" as the source, and we may never know who actually produced the memos. Hearsay and "hedged" opinions aside, we have no proof that ANY of the CBS story is true. I am flabbergasted that they are trying belatedly to cover their butts. Maybe the sponsors....???