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good thing I didn't charge you for this call

So do you think my inner psychic friend's prediction of March 3 is wrong?


god, i hope not. i've had my fingers crossed all day. i'm getting cramps.

Let's see - that would be tomorrow.

I just don't see it happening.

It's been "weeks not months" away for, umm, months.

Unless the Turkey deal is serious strategery, don't see it until those guys at least get under way to another location.

Uh, yeah. Hell, yeah.
Ah, a song comes to mind: "They didn't know what time it was, when they saw Saddam...they didn't know what time it was..."
They don't know what the f*** they're doing, at least not if you go by their public statements. A non-prize to anyone who can find coherence and consistency in the various pronouncements of Powell, say, compared to Bush over the last few days. One is against nation building, one is for it...they say war is inevitable, except maybe it isn't...
Who can keep track anymore?

Heh-heh. Blaster, this quip kinda sums up the last 6 months nicely: It's been "weeks not months" away for, umm, months.

I'm thinking March 15 give or take a few. I'm well beyond the point where I'd bet $.02 on it though.

The only thing is we've got almost 200,000 people in the region. I don't see sending all those people back home.

I hear it'll take about 2 weeks to get to get the guys to Kuwait from Turkey.

I wouldn't waste much time worrying about relocating the troops originally destined for Turkey. 4th Infantry would be nice to have, but there are already more than sufficient forces in place to launch a southern-only assault, and there has been for months. If anything, Turkey's rejectionmmay actually speed things up- no need to wait another week or two for the northern phase to initialize.

If you see the Turks make a sudden change of heart (driven by the sudden down-spike in their stock and bond markets), then you can set your go date back to mid-march.

Just my 2 cents...

So far, your prediction isn't looking so good, Michele! :)

Frankly, at this point, I don't think we're going to go to war at all. We'll have another month of negotiations at the UN. More inspections. More anti-war protests. More coalition partners will back out (did you catch Tony Blair's words this weekend?).

I hate to say it, but Bush 2 is looking more like Bush 1 to me. In 1991, after the first Gulf War, I thought B1 was unstoppable. But he squandered his political lead with feeble follow-up and the economic recession.

Change "Gulf War" to "Afghanistan" and that's how I now see Bush 2. Excellent talk, too little action.

In fact, Bush 2 is now looking like Carter to me: a decent, religious man who has decided that his job is to urge his parishioners -- er, citizens -- to action, rather than to lead them to it.

Please, someone, tell me I'm wrong.

Lyn I'd like to tell you you're wrong but I can't. Your take is quite plausible. I think war is more likely than not but by no means certain.

You scenario would mean Bush is a one-term President.

So, who'll win in 2004? President Hillary anyone?